Unsettled Debt

AFRICA, the climate crisis & you

Recently Updated Why the COP28's Loss & Damage Fund is important to everyone.

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Africa'S

Big

Climate

debt

dilemma

And why the west should care about it...

"

The era Of

GLOBAL

BOILING

has arrived

"

António Guterres

UN Secretary General, 29 July 2023

July 2023 saw several climate records broken. Scientists at the University of Maine estimated that the average daily global surface temperature reached unprecedented levels twice, while Europe and North Africa sweltered as record local temperatures were recorded, triggering public health emergencies and wildfires. This wasn’t a one-off month, however, and the whole first half of the year was marked by unusual climate events.

The last 8 years have been, collectively, the hottest on record

See historical Temperatures in Africa

"

The era Of

GLOBAL

BOILING

has arrived

"

António Guterres

UN Secretary General, 29 July 2023

July 2023 saw several climate records broken. Scientists at the University of Maine estimated that the average daily global surface temperature reached unprecedented levels twice, while Europe and North Africa sweltered as record local temperatures were recorded, triggering public health emergencies and wildfires. This wasn’t a one-off month, however, and the whole first half of the year was marked by unusual climate events.

The last 8 years have been, collectively, the hottest on record

See historical Temperatures in Africa
Namibia
Eswatini
Mozambique
Malawi
Madagascar
Comoros
Tanzania
Rwanda
Democratic Republic of Congo
Kenya
Uganda
Ethiopia
South Sudan
Sudan
Chad
Niger
Burkina Faso
Benin
Togo
Ghana
Côte d'Ivoire
Liberia
Sierra Leone
Guinea
Gambia
Senegal
Morocco
Tunisia

African nations

Lose, on average,

10-15% of gdp*

$200 Billion*

as a result of the

climate crisis

*www.understandrisk.org

*Annual GDP Sub-Saharan Africa, data.worldbank.org

The details of this fund

Will be agreed on at

COP28

In December of 2023

In 2022, through the

United Nations,

An agreement was made

To establish A

Loss & Damage fund

To address this issue

July 2023

Several climate records were broken in July 2023. Scientists at the University of Maine estimated that the average daily global surface temperature reached unprecedented levels twice while Europe and North Africa sweltered with record-high local temperatures, triggering public health emergencies and wildfires. This wasn’t a once-off month, however, and the whole first half of the year was marked by unusual climate events.

10 climate events in 2023*

so far...

* It’s impossible to look at individual incidents and say whether or not they were caused by climate change, but the increasing number of climate-related catastrophes can be blamed on a heating atmosphere.

Canada Wildfires

Canada, March 2023

Beginning in March 2023, and with increased intensity starting in June, Canada has been affected by an ongoing, record-setting series of wildfires.

Learn more

North America heatwave

United states, summeR 2023

Starting in May 2023, a heat wave has affected Western North America. The heat wave entails wildfires in Alberta, record temperatures across Canada and the US, and over 100 deaths in Mexico.

Learn more

Hawaii wildfires

Hawaii, August 2023

The wildfires that ignited August 8 have killed at least 111 people – including children – mostly around Lahaina, an economic and cultural hub obliterated by the infernos.

Learn more

European heatwave

Europe, June 2023

In 2023, Europe has been affected by heat waves. The most significant of these so far has been the ongoing named heat wave, Cerberus Heatwave, which is expected to bring the hottest temperatures ever recorded in Europe.

Learn more

European flooding

Europe, MAY 2023

In July 2021, several European countries were affected by severe floods. Some were catastrophic, causing deaths and widespread damage. The floods started in the United Kingdom as flash floods causing some property damage and inconvenience.

Learn more

Cyclone Gabrielle

New Zealand, March 2023

Severe Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle was a severe tropical cyclone that devastated parts of the North Island of New Zealand and affected parts of Vanuatu and Australia in February 2023.

Learn more

ChilE wildfires

Chile, FEB 2023

Starting on 30 January 2023, a series of wildfires began in the South American country of Chile. By early February, the fires had developed into a large outbreak of at least 406 individual fires, several dozen of which were classified as "red alert fires".

Learn more

Typhoon Mawar

Asia pacific, MAY 2023

Typhoon Mawar, described as the most powerful typhoon ever experienced in May in the northern hemisphere, hit Guam, the Philippines, Japan and Taiwan.

Learn more

South Sudan Flooding

Sudan, MAY 2023

South Sudan experienced a fourth year in a row of extreme flooding, causing hundreds of millions of dollars of damage and adding to the millions of people displaced internally.

Learn more
Image © Peter Caton/Action Against Hunger

Cyclone Freddy

South-East Africa, February 2023

Cyclone Freddy caused devastation across Mozambique, Mauritius, Madagascar and Zimbabwe, was the longest lasting tropical cyclone ever recorded, with the highest “accumulated cyclone energy”.

Learn more
Image © EPA-EFE / Luis Fonseca
Canada Wildfires
United States Heatwave
Hawaii wildfires
Chile wildfires
South Sudan Floods
Cyclone freddy
European floods
European heatwave
Typhoon Mawar
New Zealand floods

BUT SO IS

IMPROVING

Living

Standards

across africa

+2°c*

Reaching

Paris

agreement

Climate targets

is important

* Most countries are legally bound, by a 2015 accord known as the Paris Agreement, to work to prevent global average temperatures rising more than 2 degrees Celcius above “pre-industrial levels”.

Improvements in living standards are inextricably linked to increases in energy consumption

This chart shows the *The Human Development Index (HDI) and energy consumption of a selection of countries around the world. HDI is a summary measure of average achievement in key dimensions of human development.

Human development index
1.00
0.95
0.90
0.85
0.80
0.75
0.70
0.65
0.60
0.55
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.35
Higher
living
standards
More energy used
African countries
trail in both energy
usage and living standards
United States
United kingdom
World average
0
20K
40K
60K
80k
100k
120K
Energy consumption per capita (KWH)

Source: Boston University  Institute for Global Sustainability Visualizing Energy

Currently, increasing energy consumption means increasing CO2 emissions

While the Global North has marginally reduced greenhouse gas emissions (GHG, measured as tons of CO2 equivalent gases) over the last few years, global GHG emissions are increasing, in a large part due to increased fossil fuel use in countries that have seen drastic increases in standards of living.

Consumption based CO2 emissions (billions of tons)
10 b
8 b
6 b
4 b
2 b
0
Developed nations have started
to cut down on their emissions
But, these savings are
offset by the emissions
of still developing nations
India
China
Europe
USA
1990
2000
2010
2020
Year

Source: Global Carbon Budget 2022

It is an existential issue that standards of living in Africa continue to increase without the same environmental impact

So, what is...

Climate

Debt?

The principle that...

Countries with the

highest

Standard of living

Achieve & Sustain

Them through the

Burning of

Fossil

Fuels

Often sourced

from, and havING

Negative

Consequences

for, the rest of the world

And the greatest

Polluters

Owe a debt

To those who are

Cleaning up the mess

In 2019,

Africa's Co2 emissions were

4.5x lower

than the world average

0.97 tCO2/capita vs 4.39 tCO2/capita
Source: IEA Key World Energy Statistics

In 2019,

Sub-Saharan Africa's HDI* was

The lowest

Of any continent

0.547 vs 0.732  (world average).
Learn more about HDI.

For 2021,

Africa's Energy usage was

5.8x lower

than the world average

560 kWh/capita vs 3265 kWh/capita
(Source: IEA Key World Energy Statistics)

Human development index (2021)

0 - 0.3
0.3 - 0.5
0.5 - 0.7
0.7 - 0.9
0.9+
No data

Energy consumption (kWh/capita)

0 - 700
700 - 2000
2000 - 4000
4000 - 6000
6000+
No data

Co2 Emissions (tco2 per capita)

0 - 1
1 - 5
5 - 10
10 -15
15 - 20
20 - 25
25+
No data

 

0 - 1

By 2050, PWC estimates that African countries will...

Source: PwC African Energy Review 2022

But, in a best case 2050 scenario With $2.6 Trillion investment Emissions could actually shrink while global standards of living are achieved

Source: PwC African Energy Review 2022

Produce this much
green house gas

Emissions shrink!

projected
emissions
at current
levels

658 MTCO2

Emissions in Best case investment scenario

124 MTCO2

Consume this
much energy

Consumption rises!

Projected
consumption
at current
levels

1735 TWh

Consumption
rises to global
average

8455 TWh

energy consumption
Required to meet Average global standards of living

8455 TWh

This investment of

US$96 Billion

Per year until 2050

(or a total of US$2.6 Trillion)

May seem like a lot,

until you consider that...

in 2020 Africa exported

fossil fuels

To the value of

US$112 Billion

Source: UN Trade

By 2050, PWC estimates that African countries will...

But, in a best case 2050 scenario With $2.6 Trillion investment Emissions could actually shrink while global standards of living are achieved

Produce this
much green
house gas

Emissions
shrink!

projected
emissions
at current
levels

685 Mt CO2

Emissions in
Best case
investment
scenario

124 MtCO2

Consume this
much energy

Consumption
rises!

Projected
consumption
at current
levels

1735 TWh

Consumption
rises to
global
average

8455 TWh

energy consumption
Required to meet Average global standards of living

8455 TWh

This investment of

US$96 Billion

Per year until 2050

(or a total of US$2.9 Trillion)

May seem like a lot,

until you consider that...

in 2020 Africa exported

fossil fuels

To the value of

US$112 Billion

Even today, most of the

Value of

African

Resources

is captured

Overseas

In 2021, AfricaN Countries Exported

5.3 million BARRELS

of crude oil EVERY DAY

Country
Barrels exported per day
NIGERIA
1.59 million
LIBYA
1.09 million
ANGOLA
1.07 million
ALGERIA
0.44 million
CONGO
0.25 million
GABON
0.18 million
SUDANS
0.13 million
EGYPT
0.11 million
EQUATORIAL GUINEA
0.09 million
OTHERS
0.03 million

In 2021

98%

OF Exported oil left africa

Only

33%

of the companies involved in oil extraction are Africa-owned*

*Based on current production projections to 2050

$96 billion

The estimated annual cost to transform Africa's
energy landscape to mostly renewable

Amount required

$29.5 Billion

80% of this comes from international sources, but includes money for mitigation as well as energy

Total climate
funding per year

$43 Billion

The amount Sub-Saharn African countries spend servicing their debt every year

Amount spent
paying back loans

Even before the Loss & Damage Fund

Rich countries

promised to

invest in and support

Climate mitigation

and a transition to

renewable energy

for African nations

Currently, financial

Assistance flowing

to African nations

is much lower

Than what is required

To meaningfully change

Their energy landscape

And most of this

Has been provided as

loans

Which greatly increases

the debt burden

on small countries

High debt levels

Are a major

Barrier

to phasing out

fossil fuels for many

global south countries

“Many countries are trapped exploiting fossil fuels to generate revenue to repay debt while, at the same time, fossil fuel projects often do not generate the revenues expected and can leave countries further indebted than when they started. This toxic trap must end.”

The Debt-Fossil Fuel Trap

Debt Justice, 2023

African

Nations

Are taking

Action

Nations across the continent are undertaking interventions to relieve their reliance on fossil fuels and deliver a climate resilient future for their citizens. Some of these include:

South Africans have installed more than 4GW of rooftop solar

Learn more

Over 80% of electricity in Kenya comes from low carbon sources

Learn more

Zambia announced it is building $2bn worth of solar power plants

Learn more

Uganda has a national roadmap for the widescale deployment of renewable energy

Learn more

Renewables in Angola accounts for 64% of all electricity generated

Learn more

Activists want

to ensure that the

Global South

has a strong voice

in the running of the

Loss & Damage Fund

“Rich countries must step up, own up, and pay up for the harms done to poorer countries. If not, we risk not only the failure of the Loss and Damage Fund but also irreparable damage to the future of our planet and its people.”

African

Nations

Are taking

Action

Nations across the continent are undertaking interventions to relieve their reliance on fossil fuels and deliver a climate resilient future for their citizens. Some of these include:

South Africans have installed more than 4GW of rooftop solar

Learn more

Over 80% of electricity in Kenya comes from low carbon sources

Learn more

Zambia announced it is building $2bn worth of solar power plants

Learn more

Uganda has a national roadmap for the widescale deployment of renewable energy

Learn more

Renewables in Angola accounts for 64% of all electricity generated

Learn more

"Africans do not come as beggars..."

Cyril ramaphosa, South African president

African Voices

Moussa Faki Mahamat, Former President of Chad
Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa
William Ruto, President of Kenya
Muhammadu Buhari, Former President of Nigeria
Akinwumi Adesina, African Development Bank President
Graça Machel, Mozambican politician and humanitarian

They are owed
a climate debt....

"Africans do not come as beggars..."

Cyril Ramaphosa, South African president

African Voices

Moussa Faki Mahamat, Former President of Chad
Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa
William Ruto, President of Kenya
Muhammadu Buhari, Former President of Nigeria
Akinwumi Adesina, African Development Bank President
Graça Machel, Mozambican politician and humanitarian

They are owed
a climate debt....

In conclusion...

African Nations

Are among the

most impacted

By the emissions

of rich countries

These nations have

LOST OUT ON

the financial benefit of

fossil fuel

extraction

This must end

Spending money

That could be used to

Raise standards of living

on debt finance

and responding to

Climate events

Which they haven't caused

Part of the solution...

With the right approach

to climate debt,

Africa can be part of

The solution to reaching

net zero by 2050

Move the sliders in the interactive below to see how big an impact investing in Africa can have for the whole world.

Useful links

If you're feeling strongly about Climate Debt, see what the Global Action for Debt Cancellation is preparing for COP28.

Learn more

If you want to explore historical data relating to the climate crisis in Africa, check out the Climate Observer by Africa Data Hub and OpenUp

Visit climate Observer

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